Post-October 08, 2005, Muzaffarabad earthquake scenario
Abstract
An earthquake of magnitude 7.6 Mw occurred 100 km NE of Islamabad at 0850 local time (0350 GMT) on October 08, 2005. The epicenter of the main shock was located 19 km northeast of Muzaffarabad. Designated as the deadliest earthquake in Pakistan, it took a death toll of more than 80,000 human lives. It also caused a widespread destruction in Kashmir and northern Pakistan, particularly in Muzaffarabad, Bagh, Rawalakot, Mansehra, Balakot and Batatgram. Based on the epicentral distribution of 300 aftershocks, focal mechanism solutions and depth distribution, the activation of more than one fault and the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone seem to be the cause of this seismic activity. About 100 large landslides, caused mostly by active faulting, have been observed through field studies and satellite images, in the rupture zones near Balakot, Muzaffarabad, Kardalla, Hattian Bala, Sarain, Sunddangali and Bagh. The earthquake catastrophe had a profound psychological, social, and economic impact. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank assessed a preliminary estimation of US$ 5.2 billion for an effective relief, recovery and reconstruction strategy. Several workshops and conferences have been held. The ministry of Housing and Works revised and updated the seismic building code of Pakistan (SBC-07) in March 2007. The Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority made efforts to restore the basic infrastructure in the quake-affected areas, it is building a new Balakot city at Bakrial, whereas many structures in Muzaffarabad and Bagh cities were also built on modern lines.
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