Innovative Trend Analysis of Hydrometeorological Parameters in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan
Keywords:
Innovative trend analysis (ITA), Hydrometeorological trends, Climate Change, Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysAbstract
This study aims to identify climatic shifts and their implications for water resource management, particularly with the Tarbela Dam. The innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method was used to determine key hydrometeorological parameters' monthly and seasonal trends, including precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and inflows, in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Historical time series data spanning 1981 to 2024 evaluated past trends while future climate projections spanning 2025 to 2100 were obtained from the CMIP6 model using two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Historical data reveals a decreasing precipitation trend in spring by -0.007mm/year. Future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 also suggest a decreasing trend of precipitation. Tmax increased by 0.118°C/year in Spring historically, while under SSP2-4.5 a strong increase of 0.155°C/year is observed in spring, and under SSP5-8.5 about 0.2°C/year. Tmin showed a positive trend of 0.095°C/year in spring, while for SSP2-4.5 dominant increase occurred in spring by 0.137°C/year, and for SSP5-85 increased about 0.155°C/year. Relative humidity slightly increased by 0.046 %/year in the monsoon period and for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 it shows a slight increase whereas in solar radiation, historical trends increased by 6.563 W/m²/year for spring and SSP2-4.5 about 7.745 W/m²/year and for SSP5-85 increased about 9.028 W/m²/year during spring. Historical inflows increased during summer by 0.589 m³/s/month and for SSP2-4.5 increased by about 1.017 m³/s/month and for SSP5-85 about 1.3 m³/s/month during summer. This study demonstrates ITA's effectiveness and supports sustainable water management in the Upper Indus Basin underscores the urgent importance for water resource managers to adopt adaptive reservoir management and policy adjustments at Tarbela Dam to ensure long-term water security.
References
Abid, Irfan, Sadiq, Aftab, Gabriel, Hamza & Ahsan, Adnan. (2011). Role of Tarbela Dam in Water Regulation of Indus River and its Effects.
Adeyeri, O. E., Laniyan, T. A. & Gbode, I. E. 2019. Innovative trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables in Ibadan, Nigeria. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 11(2), 703–721.
Ahmad, I., Li, W. & Zhang, F. Spatiotemporal dynamics of annual, seasonal, and extreme temperature over Upper Indus Basin. Theor Appl Climatol, 151, 1399–1418 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04310-2
Ahmed, W., Akhtar, M. S. & Khan, S., 2018. Seasonal variation of acute appendicitis. Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences, 34(3), 564-567. doi:10.12669/pjms.343.14793.
Ali, S., Ajmal, M., Khan, M. S., & Shah, S. U., 2017. Assessment of precipitation trends in Gilgit Baltistan (Pakistan) for the period 1980-2015: an indicator of climate change. Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences, 50(1A), 66–75.
Atif, I., Iqbal, J. & Mahboob, M. A. 2018. Investigating snow cover and hydrometeorological trends in contrasting hydrological regimes of the Upper Indus Basin. Atmosphere, 9(5), 162.
Bilal, H., Siwar, C., Mokhtar, M. B., Kanniah, K. D., Govindan, R., & Al-Ansari, T., 2021. Assessment of land use and land cover changes in association with hydrometeorological parameters in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences, 54(2), 1–13.
Birsan, M. V., Molnar, P., Burlando, P. & Pfaundler, M. 2005. Streamflow trends in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology, 314(1–4), 312–329.
Cherinet, A. A., Yan, D., Wang, H., Song, X., Qin, T., Kassa, M. T., Girma, A., Dorjsuren, B., Gedefaw, M., Wang, H. & Yadamjav, O., 2019. Impacts of recent climate trends and human activity on the land cover change of the Abbay River Basin in Ethiopia. Advances in Meteorology, 2019, 1–14. doi:10.1155/2019/5250870.
Hamed, K. H. & Rao, A. R. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1–4), 182–196.
Khan, A. J. (2024). Hydro-meteorological data for Upper Indus Basin. HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.63adb616ad5b4b6386a27daa0c64ded0
Khattak, M. S., Babel, M. S., Sharif, M. (2011). Hydro-meteorological trends in the Upper Indus River Basin in Pakistan. Clim Res, 46, 103-119. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00957
Khalil, A., 2023. Combined use of graphical and statistical approaches for rainfall trend analysis in the Mae Klong River Basin, Thailand. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(12), 4642–4660. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.552
Khan, G., Chen, X., Khan, B., Qureshi, J. A., Khan, H., & Bano, I., 2020. Spatiotemporal change analysis of snow cover in response to climate (in-situ temperature) over the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences, 53(1), 95–117.
Khan, A. J. (2024). Hydro-meteorological data for Upper Indus Basin. HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.63adb616ad5b4b6386a27daa0c64ded0
Köyceğiz, A. & Büyükyıldız, M. 2023. Assessment of hydrometeorological parameters using innovative trend methods in the Karasu Sub-Basin of the Euphrates–Tigris Basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 141, 1231–1245.
Mather, J. R. 1981. Hydroclimatology: Perspectives and Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Munir, M. M., Shakir, A. S., Rehman, H.-U., Khan, N. M., Rashid, M. U., Tariq, M. A.-U.-R., Sarwar, M. K. 2022. Simulation-Optimization of Tarbela Reservoir Operation to Enhance Multiple Benefits and to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Water, 14, 2512. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162512
Ougahi, J. H., Saeed, S. & Hasan, K. 2023. Assessment of Hydro-climatic Variables and Its Impact on River Flow Regime in the Sub-Basins of the Upper Indus Basin. Earth Syst Environ, 7, 307–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00307-z
Öztopal, A., Şen, Z. 2017. Innovative Trend Methodology Applications to Precipitation Records in Turkey. Water Resour Manage, 31, 727–737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1343-5
Şen, Z. 2012. An innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
Shahid, M., Rahman, K. U. 2021. Identifying the Annual and Seasonal Trends of Hydrological and Climatic Variables in the Indus Basin Pakistan. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci, 57, 191–205. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00194-2
Şişman, E., Kizilöz, B. 2021. The application of piecewise ITA method in Oxford, 1870–2019. Theor Appl Climatol, 145, 1451–1465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03703-z
Singh, R., Sah, S., Das, B. et al. 2021. Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019. Theor Appl Climatol, 145, 821–838. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03657-2
Yaseen, M., Ahmad, I., Guo, J., Azam, M. I., Latif, Y. 2020. Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, 2020, Article ID 5852760, 18 pages. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/5852760
Zhu, Y. & Day, G. N. 2005. Analysis of streamflow trends and the effects of climate in Pennsylvania, 1971 to 2001. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41(6), 1393–1405.
