Climate Change Influence on Streamflow Projections Across the Chenab River Basin in Pakistan Under CMIP6 Scenarios
Keywords:
CMIP6-GCMs, SWAT model, Climate change, Extreme indices, Streamflow projectionsAbstract
This study investigated the historical and projected climatic and hydrological patterns in the high-altitude Chenab River Basin for the 21st century. It has been observed that the average temperature (30.61 °C) for the 1981-2010 baseline period is expected to increase by 2.00 °C (2.65 °C) in the mid-century (2041-2070) and 2.82 °C (5.05 °C) in the late-century (2071-2100) under SSP 2-4.5 (SSP 5-8.5). Similarly, a 3.74% and 4.71% increase in precipitation is concluded for the mid and late centuries under SSP 2-4.5, while a 7.09% and 13.03% increase is recorded under SSP 5-8.5. Although average annual flows are projected to increase by 9.52–20.82% relative to the base period by 2100, a decline is expected in the late century compared to mid-century. This analysis reveals a significant rise in the peak flow's amplitude and an earlier accomplishment. As a result, hydrological extremes are likely to intensify. The optimal management of hydrological resources in the basin will require substantial modifications to the construction and maintenance of storage reservoirs, irrigation withdrawals, flood alleviation, drought control measures, and action plans.
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