Evolving Rainfall Regimes in Pakistan: Insights from a Dual-Period Spatiotemporal Analysis
Keywords:
Climate Change, Precipitation, long-term change, short-term change, Mann-Kendell trend, Pattitt’s testAbstract
Climate change is closely linked with rate of precipitation and proper monitoring and assessment this phenomenon is important for sustainable development. This study explores the Pattitt and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test to observe the changes in median and trends analysis in precipitation in the dual-period: 1951-2019 and 1981-2019 as model. The results revealed a significant shift in median precipitation across Pakistan for pre-1981. From 1951 to 1980, changes were concentrated in the northern regions of Jammu and Kashmir (JK) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), alongside the borders of Balochistan (BL) and Punjab (PJ). After 1981, it broadened, affecting the northern areas of Gilgit Baltistan (GB), Federally administered tribal areas (FATA), and KP, beside the southern coastline of BL and Sindh. The shifts indicate a southward migration of precipitation variability, particularly post-1981. The results of the MK test showed across seasons, significant precipitation variations occurred, with a minor long-term surge, except in summer and autumn, which showed a more substantial rise. Especially July and August were major contributors to summer precipitation. Short-term intervals consistently experienced over half of the long-term precipitation, especially with more rapid declines in cool seasons. In specific regions like GB and BL, Winter precipitation declined significantly in the short term, while northern sectors of PJ exhibited amplified long-term precipitation. Cool-season precipitation increases, especially in some areas of PJ, Sindh, and KP. Springtime precipitation increased in various regions during the short term. Summer precipitation patterns were driven by monsoon and snowmelt, causing flash floods. PJ showed deviating trends in precipitation, with some regions experiencing intensified rainfall over the long-term.
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