Risk assessment of Shishper Glacier, Hassanabad Hunza, North Pakistan
Keywords:
Glacier lake outburst, risk assessment, Shishper glacier, Hazard potential.Abstract
Over the last five decades the Karakoram Glaciers has revealed irregular behavior and lack of stability. These anomalies lead surge of glaciers and the formation of glacier lakes, and now risk increasing in the context of climate change. The hazard associated with glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has become an increasingly serious threat to the life, property, livelihoods and infrastructure in the Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan. Shishper Glacier Lake in the Shishper watershed areas of central Hunza in North Pakistan, after its latest activity has turned to a highly prone GLOF hazard. Shishper Glacier and Glacier Lake in the North Pakistan can be harmful to the downstream population and have large socioeconomic impacts if an outburst occurs. This study investigated the spatio-temporal changes in Shishper glacier and its glacial lake, and associated risk of potential GLOF hazard. Shishper glacier was assessed on the basis of field survey carried out in December 2018 combine with GIS and remote sensing data for morphometric, land cover change, physical vulnerability and temporal analysis of Shishper glacier. The Glacier has shown an anomalous behavior in the month of July 2018, no prominent lake was observed while in the month of November 2018 a lake with an area of 0.026 km2 was noticed. Similarly, in the month January, 2019 a prominent lake appeared with an area of 0.057 km2. The physical vulnerability results showed that 80% of the area of Hassanabad village is highly exposed to GLOFs hazard, whereas low lying areas along the Hunza River are also susceptible to inundation. The results show that there is immediate danger of catastrophic outburst through downward movement of the glacier. The study recommends the glacier has an anomalous behavior, it is necessary to monitor the glacier and Glacier Lake continuously, and minimize the adverse effects of potential GLOFs risk. We also recommend strong understanding the phenomenon of glaciers therefore, glacier lakes are very important in north Pakistan with respect to GLOF disaster management.
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