Trend Detection in Hydro-Meteorological Variables Using Innovative Trend Analysis Technique: A Case Study of Kabul River Basin
Keywords:
Trend Analysis, Innovative Trend Analysis, Hydro-meteorological variablesAbstract
Trend analysis is important for assessing the impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables. This study investigated temporal trends in hydro-meteorological variables on monthly and seasonal scales in the Kabul River Basin for historical (1981–2022) and future climate projections under CMIP6 scenarios. The Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method was applied at confidence levels of 90% and 95% to identify trends. Results indicated a strong increasing trend in streamflow at Chitral (SITA = 3.214 cumecs/year) in June. While Nowshera has a strong decreasing trend (SITA = -13.448 cumecs/year) in the same month. Precipitation showed both increasing and decreasing trends at all stations, months, and seasons except at Peshawar. The maximum temperature showed an increasing trend at Peshawar and a decreasing trend at Drosh at monthly and seasonal timescales. The minimum temperature showed an increasing trend across most of the stations, while Drosh showed a decreasing trend in all months and seasons. The uniqueness of this study was to fill a significant research void by applying the Innovative Trend Analysis technique for trend detection of hydro-meteorological variables in the Kabul River Basin. The results of this study provide critical insights that can assist water resource policymakers in developing strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in this transboundary basin.
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